The NFL Draft process is fascinating and has continued to grow in popularity. One of the most significant parts of the process is the NFL combine. Lucas Oil Stadium annually hosts the combine in Indianapolis. Teams have an opportunity to watch players compete in drills to help determine their potential. This is valuable in combination with the interviews. The workouts and interviews can raise a prospect’s opportunity to be picked higher in the draft. The position that tends to have the most hype in the draft process is quarterbacks and for good reason. Quarterback is arguably the most important position in all of sports. A team without a quarterback has an opportunity to draft a position that can make a significant impact on a relatively inexpensive rookie contract.
The Challenge of Finding a Franchise Quarterback
The Panthers recently illustrated the importance of the position by sacrificing significant draft capital this year and next year to draft Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL Draft. Additionally, they gave up a proven player, and their best wide receiver in DJ Moore, for the chance to draft an unproven player at the most important position. Quarterbacks are extremely value. Yet, evaluating the position continues to be a challenging process.
Quarterbacks typically highlight the first round. However, few of them have met expectations. It’s almost a complete gamble to find what makes a good quarterback. In the 2018 NFL Draft: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson were all first round picks. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the only quarterbacks from that draft with sustained success. There’s a long list of quarterbacks with potential. However, most are lost in the sea of NFL quarterbacks who didn’t meet expectations.
NFL Quarterback Prototype
Quarterbacks are typically chosen by teams based on past success. Players like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Joe Montana. Examples of pocket quarterbacks with good size, accuracy and known for processing the game quickly. They’re all time greats but the game has changed from what it was. Prospects who were once dismissed. Because of not having the prerequisite accuracy or coming from pro style systems have found success. For example, Patrick Mahomes, who by most accounts, is the best quarterback in the league didn’t come from a pro style system; Josh Allen had accuracy issues; Joe Burrow had below average hand size and average arm strength coming out; Lamar Jackson considered too inaccurate; Justin Herbert lacked top end production in college; and Jalen Hurts had questions about his lack of anticipation and accuracy.
There is no such thing as a perfect process, but it’s fair to ask how a process of drafting players at arguably the most important position in sports can be improved. It’s difficult to evaluate because many factors are dependent on each other. There have been many advancements to solve this mystery, but the process is still imperfect. From S2 cognition tests, film review, private workouts, and even dinners. No other position receives the same amount of scrutiny and it makes sense considering the responsibilities of a quarterback. The stake of a team’s success relies on the success of picking the right quarterback.
Situation Matters
Another significant factor is how much depends on where the quarterback is drafted. The stability of an organization can make or break a quarterback. Regardless of Josh Allen’s talent, his work ethic, and all the intangible signs he displayed. Who knows what would happen if he did not have the opportunity to work with Brian Daboll. A man who is also currently the head coach with the Giants. Additionally, it’s likely no coincidence that his jump in performance came in 2020, the same season Stefon Diggs joined the team. Team organization and structure matter to quarterbacks. Moreover, there is a reason most great quarterbacks have great coaches and/or talent surrounding them. Patrick Mahomes, arguably the best quarterback in the league, wouldn’t be quite the same player if he wasn’t in Andy Reid’s system.
Many Factors to Consider
The success of a quarterback relies on various factors. Many factors are outside the quarterback’s control. Additionally, a team drafting a quarterback shouldn’t just look at the quarterback. The team should examine its supporting cast to confirm if it’s conducive to a quarterback’s success. For instance, many called this past season a “prove it” year for Jalen Hurts. The team surrounded Jalen with talent, AJ Brown most notably, and it was up to him to perform. He proved that with talent around him, he was capable of being a top level quarterback.
Quarterback success is dependent on many variables and it’s difficult to pinpoint which is the most significant. It’s not just the player’s innate talent, but also their circumstances. It’s not a coincidence that most successful quarterbacks have had great coaches, great supporting casts, and skills that have made them stand out. The team drafting the player plays a significant role in the projection of that players. It’s important to evaluate the player, and the team that drafted him, when evaluating a quarterback’s success. It will be interesting to see how these new crop of quarterbacks turn out.
