The NBA playoffs are when the superstars distinguish themselves from All-Stars. The value certain players have in the regular season all of a sudden disappear with the heightened playoff intensity. Some may lament the NBA regular season and mention this as another excuse of why results don’t matter until the playoffs. While understandable, this is not completely true. The NBA regular season still offers valuable clues when it comes to how successful certain teams will be once the playoffs begin.
Regular Season value
Many times during the regular season, teams will introduce wrinkles during the season that provide advantages in a playoff setting. This was one of the reasons the Raptors went from Dwane Casey to Nick Nurse. It the belief Nick Nurse would have the creativity and flexibility to make the necessary adjustments to succeed in areas which Casey lacked. Even a team’s record against certain teams can provide a clue of how teams match up; especially in combination with analyzing how the star player performs in those match ups. During the 2010-11 NBA regular season the Miami Heat were 0-2 against the Dallas Mavericks and LeBron had some of his worst performances against them:
The Heat also had a dismal record against the Bulls (0-3) and the Celtics (1-3) that same year; however, as shown above, LeBron had no issues performing against them and leading his team to victories versus both teams.
Later Rounds mean more Difficult Teams
When mentioning playoffs, it’s best to distinguish between different rounds of the playoffs. Early rounds offer a gauge of a team’s true capabilities; however, for higher seeded teams it often doesn’t provide a clear test of how those teams will perform against more challenging teams. While it’s an achievement for many franchises to make the playoffs as the Pistons, Nets, Pacers, Clippers, and Magic can attest. The fact is many of the aforementioned teams don’t have the experience to provide contending teams a true challenge.
The playoffs present a period of time in which teams and players are taking scouting reports more seriously. It’s also the time period in which players play their hardest knowing they are only a few games from elimination. Regular season stats provide an idea of who’s the best but the playoffs leave little doubt of the true superstars. Each team’s primary goal is to win a championship. It makes sense to value players who fit the archetype of championship caliber players. Bob Myers explains it well in the video below:
Evaluating Young Talent for the Playoffs
When playoffs are considered, it sheds light on how valuable a player’s skill-set is. Once the draft starts it seems many teams forget about the type of players who lead teams to championships. Look at players who were in the Finals beyond the superstars, which include Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant. Players such as Draymond Green, Marc Gasol, Kyle Lowry, Fred Van Vleet, Andre Iguodala and Pascal Siakam each display high basketball IQs and did before they were drafted.
By the time of the NBA Draft, teams and fans alike become enamored by size and athleticism to determine upside. It’s not wrong to consider athleticism, age and size when evaluating a player; however, those indicators maybe overrated in regards to determining future success. There are other indicators which do a better job of predicting success such as: team impact; shooting ability; the ability to draw free throws; passing skill; the ability to create turnovers and block shots. These are just a few indicators which help to determine the success a player will have in the NBA. If teams carefully evaluate valuable qualities in players, then it’s only a matter of time until their team becomes a true contender.
