Championship Odds
Never let initial predictions sway significantly based on the early portion of the season. Excluding injury, in an 82 game season, circumstances can change significantly as chemistry builds and roster moves are made. Excitement is high early, which can inevitably lead to hot takes; even when it’s common knowledge the NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint. Notwithstanding context, it’s a fun exercise to compare predictions to actual play on the court. There is enough of a sample size, over a quarter of the season’s worth, to watch for certain tendencies and adjust off season predictions. Here are thoughts on five teams at this point in the season.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have picked things up after a slow start this season. Harden struggled early to match consistency in his previous seasons but has found his stride as the season progresses. Early this season he struggled to reach the free throw line and the new rules were an adjustment for him. He’s currently third in the league in total free throw attempts and has looked more like himself since Christmas. Kevin Durant continues to have great scoring numbers and is an MVP candidate. Kyrie recently made his debut this season on the road against the Pacers and scored 22 points. He is eligible to play only road games at this juncture but with the ever evolving circumstances around COVID-19, things may change as the season progresses or he gets vaccinated. While the Nets are second in the East, their struggles against teams .500 or better leave open questions regarding their status as preseason favorites. Health has always been a struggle for this team and Durant’s recent MCL injury indicates more of the same. The team misses Joe Harris who is currently out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Considering some of their issues, it’s incredible where their record stands today; though, high end talent always helps. The combination of Durant, Harden, and Irving should make them favorites to come out the East but the next team on the list may have a valid objection.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks did not look as dominant to start the season because of their early season health issues. More recently, they’ve been .500 in their last ten games which puts them as the fourth seed in the East. A majority of their issues early on were injury-based. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez all missed time early this year. Giannis being the only starter who was consistently healthy this season. Dante DiVincenzo has returned to the lineup and the overall team has been healthier in recent weeks. The results have shown on the court. Per CleaningTheGlass, since November 17th, 2021, the Bucks have the third highest Net Rating in the NBA behind the Suns and the Jazz. Giannis is playing excellent and is a top MVP candidate. Khris, Jrue, and Bobby Portis have also made significant contributions during this stretch. They have had struggles recently going 2-5 in their last seven; however two of those wins were against the Nets and the Warriors. The Bucks are the reigning NBA champions, while other teams receive the hype, it would not be a surprise to see them holding another trophy by the end of it.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have had their struggles recently. There are signs of improvement but a lack of consistency. Westbrook continues to be a questionable fit and it will be interesting to see if his bad habits will mitigate as the season progresses. He has not had issues turning the ball over recently but he is shooting less than 40 percent from the field his last 10 games. Until recently, Vogel has not had an excellent grasp of the best lineups for the team. Players like Austin Reaves have become more important to the Lakers lineup than anticipated which is not too surprising considering their early injuries. Lebron is averaging over 30 points in his last ten games and while this has not led to consistent wins yet, it is a good sign that he is still capable of these performances. They have had some surprisingly positive contributions from players such as Reaves, Avery Bradley and Carmelo Anthony. The team has had key players out all season, including Lebron, and they are still awaiting Anthony Davis’s return. The injuries may hurt them early in the standings but it may not be clairvoyant to dismiss them completely until more of their roster is intact.
Miami Heat
The Heat had an excellent start to the year and have played well enough in recent weeks to be less than a game shy of the top seed in the East. The team has improved with the addition of Kyle Lowry; however, he has not been the only player to provide a significant contribution. Bam Adebayo was playing well overall and reliable on defense before his injury. He is also expected to return fairly soon. Jimmy Butler has picked up where he left off since his recent return from injury. Tyler Herro has improved this year in his third season and PJ Tucker has played solid. The team has also had contributions from many of their lesser known players in this recent stretch. According to NBA.com, the Heat have the 3rd best net rating in the league their past 15 games, going 11-4. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin are 3rd, 4th, and 5th in points per game for the Heat during that stretch. Omar Yurtseven has been their leading rebounder during that stretch with over 12 per game. He also has the highest on/off net rating on the team all season among those who have played at least 100 minutes. The team has a unique combination of proven veterans sprinkled with talented young players playing extremely well. They are a dangerous team that is not garnering the respect they deserve.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors currently have the second best record in the league and the third best point differential in the league according to CleaningTheGlass. This is despite missing Klay Thompson for most of the season. Steph Curry is the primary reason for their exemplary play and it’s why he was a favorite for MVP. He has been through a bit of a shooting slump lately. Shooting only approximate 31 percent from three his last 10 games. He’s been playing at an extremely high level and the Warriors have looked cohesive. Andrew Wiggins is one of their most trusted defenders and their second leading scorer. Jordan Poole has improved greatly this year and has been their third leading scorer. Draymond remains productive as the one who puts it all together. It’s axiomatic the team has not looked quite as good since his loss. His return will make a significant difference in the team looking as dominant as they did early on. Once their big three returns with Draymond, Klay, and Steph they will be a dangerous team with the potential to dominate.
