The assumption is that the Eastern conference finals matchup between the Cavaliers and the Celtics for the 2017-18 NBA season is all but guaranteed. It is the perfect storyline of Kyrie vs. LeBron on opposite sides of the court after spending the past 3 seasons together following Kyrie’s sudden departure. Teammates become rivals and the basketball gods will reward the fans with an epic matchup between the two titans of the East…but what if it’s not that simple? When previewing a potential match up of the Cavaliers and Celtics, the Cavs still have the best basketball player in the world today – LeBron James of course – so their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals is a lock; however, their opponent is more open for interpretation than many think at this juncture.
As much as the Celtics added to their roster this past off-season it may not be enough to overcome the loss of key contributors. Most say the Celtics came out even or with a net positive as it pertains to swapping Isaiah for Kyrie which might be true especially when considering Isaiah’s hip injury; however, Isaiah’s impact on the Celtics last year can’t be denied when considering his contribution on offense and in the clutch. He was so good in the 2016-17 season that he was an MVP candidate; deservingly so, as he lead the NBA in Win probability added. As good as Kyrie is, it will be difficult for him to duplicate the productivity Isaiah had on the Celtics. Most will point to how clutch Kyrie is as the tipping point but when looking at statistics, per Inpredictable.com, Isaiah led the league in clutch win probability added for the regular season – Kyrie was 54th. Kyrie is an extremely talented player but there are legitimate concerns whether or not a team can go far with him as their best player. When analyzing the role players that were lost, the Celtics will have a tougher road to the Eastern Conference Finals than many think.
Let’s start with the loss of Avery Bradley; though, his impact on the team is not fully captured by stats; his impact on defense can’t be denied. He was considered a defensive stopper and was crucial to covering for Isaiah on defense, his departure leaves Marcus Smart as the only reliable perimeter defender on the team – the Celtics believe that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have potential to be reliable defenders but they have to prove it on the court. Another unsung hero was Amir Johnson; he averaged only 6.5 PPG and 4.6 RPG on 20.1 MPG but was an essential piece on defense and did all the little things the Celtics asked. Consider this – the Celtics as a team had a Net Rating (Offensive minus Defensive rating) of 3.1 for the regular season last year which was 7th in the league and 2nd in the East only behind the Raptors. When Amir Johnson was on the court, the team’s Net Rating went up to +8.0 which would be 2nd – only behind the Warriors who were +12.1 and slightly ahead of the Spurs who were third at +7.9 – in fact he had the highest on court Net Rating of any Celtics player last year.
As valuable as both Amir Johnson and Avery Bradley were to the Celtics last year even their value pales in comparison to Jae Crowder; his stats do not stand out on the surface (13.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.2 APG) but when comparing his basic stats the only other players to average at least 13/5/2 on at least 39% shooting from the three point line this past season were Gordon Hayward and Paul George. No one would confuse Jae Crowder with either player but when looking at overall impact on the team he was just as valuable this past season. While Gordon Hayward and Paul George are more talented players with Net Ratings of +7.1 and +2.9 respectively (links); neither player boasted a net rating of +7.8 while on the court as Jae Crowder did this past season. Gordon Hayward will likely serve as the second option to Kyrie and as talented as he is it will be difficult for him to replace Crowder’s overall production. Hayward will provide more production on the offensive end but replacing his overall contribution on offense and defense will be difficult. Hayward will be valuable to the Celtics but Crowder will be missed.
The Celtics also lost Kelly Olynyk who was another solid contributor and a fan favorite. He was essential to their win against the Wizards in Game 7 of the playoffs this past year and they likely wouldn’t have made the Eastern Conference Finals without him. The loss of Olynyk, Bradley, Johnson, and Crowder will be difficult for the Celtics to overcome. The Wizards, Bucks, and Raptors all have the potential to be better than the Celtics next year. The Celtics will be a quality team but they are not a lock to make the Eastern Conference Finals as many think.
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